Foreign Policy: The Iran chessboard, as seen by Team Obama:

... But recent administration assessments and conversations with outside government Iran watchers and non-proliferation experts offer a different view in which Obama's hand may actually have been strengthened and Iran's weakened by some overlooked recent events. Among the factors they cite: the outcome of recent elections in Lebanon, in which a pro-western coalition won a majority over a coalition that includes the Iranian-backed Shiite militant group Hezbollah, the eagerness of Iran's leading regional ally Syria to engage with Washington, Arab states' generally positive response to the Obama administration's strong push to negotiate Middle East peace and the creation of a Palestinian state. Beyond the Middle East, Obama's aggressive non-proliferation initiatives and "reset" with Moscow could also end up increasing pressure on Iran, they said.

"From 2003 to 2009, Iran was on a roll," one senior administration official said Friday. "Expanding its sphere of influence, benefiting from a changed balance of power in the region, and generally optimistic about its world. Many said it was not possible to engage because Iran was so strong and thus disincented to do so.

"I do not think any credible analyst would say now that Iran feels that way anymore," the official continued. "And I do not think any credible analyst would suggest the changes we have put on the table - from [Middle East peace envoy George] Mitchell to [Obama's Iranian New Year's] Nowruz [greeting] to Iraq to Cairo - did not have an impact in the region generally or in Iran particularly. "

"The chessboard is moving demonstrably in the U.S. direction." That is the takeaway, said Congressional Research Service Middle East analyst Kenneth Katzman, from recent assessments by administration officials. "What I heard them saying is, ‘Let's take advantage of that now, while we have the chessboard, and try to get a nuclear deal and get that resolved, rather than the whole ball of wax.'" ...

Posted by Laura at June 26, 2009 11:01 PM