I think the paradox of the Iranian regime operating from a position of fracture and weakness domestically, and overconfidence/miscalculation internationally is quite dangerous. As one analyst writes (paraphrasing), it's hard to imagine they will be able/prepared to make concessions if they ever get to negotiations:

Washington now faces a newly fractured Iranian polity ruled by a leadership that is willing to jettison its own institutions and legitimacy in its determination to retain absolute control. That does not bode well for Iran's capacity to undertake serious talks and eventually engage in historic concessions on its nuclear program and support for terrorism.

But she says, Obama has to try. Hard nosed engagement, few illusions, and don't declare failure too quickly.......

I do think inside bilateral US-Israel discussions, it's likely Israel will gain traction for its arguments now for kicking forward reassessment of the productiveness of engagement to the fall, perhaps before the UN gen'l assembly in September - and we're likely to see if no results an accelerating of the process of sanctions, etc.

Increased domestic repression in the short term domestically in Iran, also sadly seems likely.

More here and here.

And NIAC's Trita Parsi, UVM's Gulf expert Greg Gause, and former INR Middle East expert Wayne White weigh in on "what now" at Foreign Policy tonight.

Posted by Laura at June 13, 2009 11:49 PM