Jim Besser:

AIPAC, the main pro-Israel lobby, has been hard at work generating “no pressure” sentiment on the Hill, which isn’t very hard to do – as long as members don’t have to actually go to battle with the President. But traditionally, AIPAC has been uncomfortable with the issue of settlements; this isn’t a fight they particularly want.

The lobby understands better than most how difficult it is to change the foreign policy of a determined administration through congressional statements, letters and resolutions, especially when the president enjoys popular support and has strong congressional majorities. [...]

But there’s not a lot lawmakers can or want to do at this stage, and at least for most Democrats there’s not a lot of appetite for a big fight with a popular president on behalf of a settlers movement seen by many as increasingly violent and extreme.

More here:

The Obama administration is confident it will retain strong Jewish support even as it ratchets up the pressure on Israel and offers clues that, unlike its predecessors, it means what it says about the thorny issue of Jewish settlements on the West Bank.

While the pro-Israel establishment is already reacting angrily to the administration’s shifted red lines on settlements, many analysts say President Barack Obama’s ability to soften tough positions with pro-Israel reassurances will prevent a broad Jewish backlash.

“The conflict is sharpening,” said Abraham Foxman, national director of the Anti-Defamation League, who pointed out that friction over settlements is nothing new. “But I don’t remember it escalating so quickly before.”

Part of that escalation could be “orchestration” in advance of President Obama’s long-awaited speech on Thursday to the Muslim world, the centerpiece of an effort to reboot U.S. relations in the region, Foxman said.

In private some Jewish leaders aren’t so sure it’s just pre-speech orchestration.

“President Obama is sending out very clear signals that he plans to follow through with action,” said an official of a mainstream pro-Israel group who was not authorized to speak on the record. “That is consistent with his approach to other issues. When it comes to the issue of settlements, we’re not used to presidents who say what they mean and mean what they say.”

Just what that action might be remains to be seen.

A colleague who attended the press briefing with Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak said the reporters in attendance agreed that the headline was that boith sides want the "volume to go down" on disagrements. ...On the record he said that Israel wants the reassessment on Iran by September, not December. On a more nuamced level, he thinks Obama is going to disagree equally with Israelis, Arabs, Europeans etc.

Posted by Laura at June 3, 2009 02:54 PM