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Worth reading: David Ignatius on the Obama-Netanyahu meeting:
Posted by Laura at May 20, 2009 11:56 AMThe Obama strategy over the next few months will be to create a regional framework for peace negotiations that's enticing enough to draw in the wary Netanyahu. To give Israel some quick tangible benefits, the United States wants the Arabs to begin normalizing relations with the Jewish state. Jordan's King Abdullah describes this promise of recognition by the Arab League nations as a "23-state solution."
The key to this front-loading strategy is Saudi Arabia. But the Saudis warn privately that they won't normalize anything unless Israel makes some dramatic moves -- such as freezing settlements in the occupied West Bank -- that demonstrate its commitment to the 2003 "road map" for peace.
To break this logjam, the Obama administration appears ready to lean hard on Netanyahu. Obama has a range of options, starting with criticism of Israel for failing to meet the road map conditions and escalating to tougher measures.
Obama bluntly stated his opposition to settlements: "I shared with the prime minister the fact that under the road map . . . there's a clear understanding that we have to make progress in settlements. Settlements have to be stopped in order for us to move forward."
To start narrowing the gap between U.S. and Israeli positions, Obama directed his Middle East envoy, George Mitchell, to sit down with the Israeli team immediately after the Oval Office meeting. Mitchell's mediation efforts will intensify in coming days, as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas visit Washington next week and Obama travels to Cairo in early June for a speech that will dramatize his outreach to the Arab world.
Here's where Netanyahu's poker skills will be tested. The Israeli prime minister wants U.S. and Arab leaders to pledge that any future Palestinian state will be demilitarized -- with no army and no control over its airspace -- before he agrees to negotiate the details of statehood. Netanyahu probably isn't bluffing on this one: Unless a formula can be reached that protects Israeli security, he won't play.
Netanyahu knew Obama was a rare politician when they first met in March 2007. Back then, nobody was giving the Illinois senator much of a chance, but the Likud leader told his aides: "I think this is the next president of the United States." Now Netanyahu faces the full force of the Obama political phenomenon -- a president who feels politically secure enough to ignore the usual rules of the U.S.-Israel relationship and push hard for what he thinks is right.