December 30, 2008

Some analysis in the Israeli press is expressing more cautiousness and skepticism about the direction of the Gaza operation today. Essentially the gist seems to be that Israel has been using heavy air strikes to get a political goal - a ceasefire on its terms with a significant reduction in rocket attacks if not bringing them to zero (which IDF army chief of staff Gazi Ashkenazi thinks is unrealistic), in exchange for Gaza (still controlled by Hamas) possibly getting eventually less restrictive border crossings. Israeli press reports are suggesting that the air strikes are essentially running out of targets, that they are softening for possible ground incursion or that that could be a bluff if they can get the cease-fire they want in advance of that. If Israeli political and military leaders don't overreach and forget what their goal is, some journalists and commentators are today warning. See the Nahum Barnea and Ha'aretz analyses below. Barnea: " ... The problem is that politicians tend to forget who they're trying to trick, the enemy or their people. What begins as a deception ruse for the enemy ends with self-deception. ... With all the enthusiasm over the black smoke forming over Gaza, they tend to forget the operation's goal: Forcing Hamas to agree to a cease-fire on terms that Israel is willing to meet. That is the goal that Olmert, Livni and Barak and the overwhelming majority of Israelis agree on: Not occupation and not toppling. The moment that Hamas agrees to a cease-fire, the operation is supposed to end. This is also a lesson that should have been learned from the mistakes of 2006: In war, you have to know how to end on time."


Posted by Laura at December 30, 2008 10:02 AM