Gaza Day 2. Former Israeli intelligence chief Efraim Halevy, who has advocated for Israeli engagement with Hamas, writes me that, "Hamas will have to come to terms with the preponderance of Israel's force that will preclude it from dictating the 'rules of the game' in any future cease fire, if any future cease fire ever emerges from the ashes. We shall see how this unfolds."

An international journalist colleague reporting *from Israel on Gaza writes, "It is pretty desperate -- but definitely planned; briefing that the attack wouldn't take place until after the security cabinet meeting today and then doing it on Shabbat. A lot of Hamas policemen -- including the police chief -- were in their bases, completely unsuspecting."

Noting leftwing Meretz party's call for military action in Gaza, Israeli American analyst Haggai Elitzur writes that the strikes have pretty widespread support across the Israeli political spectrum. "Military planners want to hit as hard as they can while they have the chance, and the political leadership seems to agree. I'm not so sure it's all about electioneering, either."

AP: "Crowds of thousands swept into the streets of cities around the Middle East on Sunday to denounce Israel's air assault on Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip. From Lebanon to Iran, Israel's adversaries used the weekend assault to marshal crowds into the streets for noisy demonstrations. And among regional allies there was also discontent: The prime minister of Turkey, one of the few Muslim countries to have relations with Israel, called the air assault a 'crime against humanity.' ... 'We have entered a new spiral of despair,' French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner told the Journal du Dimanche in an interview published Sunday. 'The truce must be restored.' ... In Amman, Jordan, about 5,000 lawyers marched toward parliament to demand the Israeli ambassador's expulsion and the closure of the embassy. 'No for peace, yes to the rifle,' they chanted. ... And in the normally politically placid streets of glitzy Dubai, hundreds of demonstrators -- some draped in Palestinian flags -- gathered at the Palestinian consulate.''

Marc Lynch: "Keep an eye on Cairo. Egypt has been at the heart of the Arab anger over the evolving crisis. It's been the one enforcing the blockade, ignoring a rising chorus of public criticism at home and in the wider Arab world. Egyptian and Arab media and political forces have been lacerating the Mubarak regime for months over its enforcement of the blockade of Gaza. Today, the Muslim Brotherhood upped the ante by calling for a highly unusual public protest today to be led by Supreme Guide Mohammed Mehdi Akef -- announced in a blaring red banner atop its official website. Most likely, this will just be another symbolic protest, but it contributes to a crisis atmosphere and there's no telling how the various forces will react." Steve Clemons: Hijacking Obama's Mideast strategy. eRiposte on strategy.

University of Maryland Mideast studies professor and analyst Paul Scham tells me: Israeli Defense Minister General Ehud Barak "is staking out a position between two key dates: January 20 (Obama's inauguration) and February 10 (Israeli elections). Metaphorically, they want to capture as much territory as they can before the UN steps in and says hold it. They assume whatever Obama does will be more dovish than the current administration."

"This is part of Israel responding to two things: especially to Lebanon two and a half years ago, where Israel was humiliated," Scham said. "But also the perception that Hamas outmaneuvered [them] into a ceasefire [last June]," by a steady stream of rocket attacks into Sderot.

"I think Hamas miscalculated. It thought the situation now was like when they got the ceasefire in June," Scham continued. "But at this point, Israel was prepared for a fight, and violence [recent Hamas rocket attacks into southern Israel] was more more likely to be counterproductive. In June, it helped [Hamas] get to a ceasefire."

Daniel Levy: What next?

Leading Israeli commentator Nahum Barnea in Yedioth Ahronoth:

... I don’t know where this operation is headed, nor am I sure that its captains know either. This isn’t a sophisticated, strategic game of chess being played here; it’s more like backgammon: You throw the dice and go wherever they lead you to. If Hamas succeeds in firing between 200 and 300 Kassam rockets every day over the course of weeks, as the most pessimistic scenario predicts, there won’t be any choice but to enter Gaza with massive numbers of ground forces and to evacuate tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes, if not more, and to bring them to central Israel. But there are other scenarios as well.

The goal that was set by the government this time is limited. It isn’t “to cause Hamas’s collapse,” as Tzippi Livni demanded not long ago but, rather, as one of the fathers of the operation said last night, “to deal Hamas a hard blow that will allow for quiet under conditions that are acceptable to Israel.” Olmert, who by nature aspired to achieve a more meaningful goal, ultimately supported lowering expectations. That is the lesson he learned from the errors he made at the beginning of the Second Lebanon War.

In practice, the goal of the operation is to force Hamas into accepting a new temporary cease-fire, whose rules are little more stable and more amenable to Israel. This is the very same mode of cautious thinking that engendered the limited IDF operations in Lebanon up until the fiasco of 2006. Not more than that and not less. Peace isn’t not going to reign now for 40 years. Israel doesn’t have a horoscope the ensures it 40 years of quiet. ...

Yedioth: View from Gaza, from resident Sami Abid: "...People in Gaza are not angry with Hamas. On the contrary: The anger is directed toward Israel. We live in fear, hunger and poverty. And on top of that, you are bombing us. Our lives are ones of distress and hunger, and in addition to that, death by bombardment awaits us. The time has come to find the third way in which we will be able to live better. After the bombardment, Hamas needs to decide where it is headed: toward a tahdia or toward continued war with Israel. One thing is clear: Hamas will not agree to a tahdia without the opening of the crossing points. Not only will Hamas refuse such a cease-fire, but so will all the organizations and all the residents. Nobody in Gaza will agree to a cease-fire without the opening of the crossing points."

A former senior US intelligence official who has served in the region says, "You cannot hold the people of Gaza responsible for the fact that there are terrorists in their midst. They are captive. ... The tragedy of this is that ... Israel is [not] taking steps...that would build community relations, and remove fear of one another."

*Monday Update: International journalists are blocked from entering Gaza, and this correspondent is not currently reporting from inside Gaza, as I originally understood. "Erez crossing closed since it started and even the approach roads are now declared a closed military zone as the ground forces build up."

Posted by Laura at December 28, 2008 11:19 AM