 |
|
Debate: McCain seemed to be trying harder initially to be more genial, but still comes off as quite ill-tempered. At moments, almost having trouble controlling his anger even when there's no obvious provocation to him, and when Obama is making gestures again and again to be civil ("John and I agree on two things...."). McCain repeatedly expresses annoyance at Obama's "eloquence." McCain even belittled Obama's saying "health of the mother" as if that is such an inane concept?! Curious how others will see it, but I cannot believe tonight's performance will help McCain with women undecideds or independents.
David Brooks on PBS: Obama landed three solid reassuring performances. No game changer for McCain. "McCain seemed tight. Is this someone you want to live with for four years?"
Update:
CNN: 58-31 Obama-McCain, and McCain's unfavorables went up slightly.CBS instant poll, survey of "about" 500 uncommitted voters:
53 percent said Obama won; 22 percent said Mccain, 25 percent a draw.
Uncommitted voters: 28 pct now committed to obama; 14 pct to McCain
Who would raise taxes? McCain: 48 pct; Obama 63 pct.
Right decisions on health care: McCain, 30 pct; 69 pct Obama
Chris Cillizza's take.
Fivethirtyeight: Mediacurves poll of independents: 60 to 30 for Obama. Nate Silver: "At the end of the day, one of McCain's problems is that he simply doesn't own the negativity very well. During the John Lewis sequence, during the ACORN and Ayers stuff, he came across as uncomfortable, insincere, overcoached. In certain ways, his 'straight talk' brand plays against him when it seems as though he has trouble believing his own talking points." Sean Quinn: "Looks like the Luntz group went Obama." (Stan Greenberg focus group here and here).
More from Nate Silver: "Tonight's debate is not going to do John McCain any favors. On the contrary, it was the most lopsided of the four events in the post-debate snap polls.McCain was winning the debate early on, responding with surprising vigor and detail on the economy. But then came this (negative campaigning) .... McCain's implication that Obama was principally responsible for the negative tone of the campaign was simply not going to be credible to most voters. ... But voters came into the debate thinking by 2:1 margins that McCain was running a negative campaign and Obama a positive one. To try and fight against that tide was a significant mistake.... Obama, it should be noted, was not particularly effective during this exchange (especially considering that he should have prepped for this kind of sequence days ahead of time), eliciting a lukewarm response from the dial groups. But it turned out that he didn't have to be, as McCain was left with just enough rope to hang himself. And from that point forward, the dials looked like the S&P 500 every time that Obama finished one of his responses and McCain began his. The voters had been pleasantly surprised with the McCain they saw in the first 20 minutes of the debate. But after that disingenuous sequence on negative campaigning, they basically gave up on him."
All the people who have been advising McCain to run a more negative, non-issue based campaign have done him a disservice. It makes him seem smaller, and voters have heard it all before and aren't interested. The more they try to ramp up the scary factor, there's a kind of so-what factor and the more negative, tight, embittered McCain seems with no clear overall positive message. Similarly, they've used Palin in a way that makes the ticket come across as extreme and highly polarizing. And one can increasingly foresee McCain as a somewhat tragic figure, likely to be defeated in a way by his own party and the pressures to be his party's candidate and run his party's type of divisive, smear-filled, non-issue based negative campaign, against perhaps some of his own inclinations. McCain really comes across as increasingly embittered.