Karadzic Arrest. An American friend in Sarajevo writes, "I apparently crashed before they got him, and missed the honking festivities in the rain last night. But people have more spring in their step, despite the March in July weather we are having. No idea why now – apparently he was under surveillance for a month as Dr. Davic. He was writing a column for a health magazine. The speculation on Jazeera that rings true was that the Serbian govt coalition needed to be set, then they got the green light. This shows conditionality works to me. At least that's my line." Former UN high rep Paddy Ashdown in Sarajevo today, he further reports, so we may learn more.

More thoughts from former Balkan hand Rich Byrne:

So what's this all about? A couple quick thoughts.

First, the new reform government is officially in -- and this is one of the first fruits of their ascension. They know that half measures to allay intransigent hardliners' wrath are not getting them anywhere. They need to show improvements in ordinary Serbs' lives and quickly -- loosening of visa regimes, flow of capital and investment, etcetera.

So today's arrest is one step. The quick call to send ambassadors back to countries that have recognized Kosovo is another. In return, the international community has to show some good will very quickly.

Second, today's arrest is also a decisive blow to former prime minister and chief Serbian pedant Vojislav Koštunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) -- which controlled the keys to government as the key party in the ruling coalition until recently. The rapid arrest of Karadžic; by the new government makes it very clear that Koštunica could have easily done it. Thus, Koštunica and his cronies are humiliated in front of two key audiences. Ordinary Serbs may see them impotent fools. And the international community sees Vojo and Company as the stupid and dishonest creeps that everyone thought them to be all this time. ...

Posted by Laura at July 22, 2008 12:22 PM