Rami Khouri:

Behind the bellicose talk of "will the US and Israel attack Iran's nuclear facilities?" and "how will Iran retaliate if it is attacked?" a much more interesting game of feints, hints and winks is taking place. Earlier this week, the Iranian president said there would be no war with the US and Israel, the Iranian foreign minister said that Iran could consider the opening of a US interests section in another embassy in Tehran, and senior advisers to supreme leader Ali Khamenei - the real power in Iran - made it clear that the latest offer from the major Western powers could be seen as the basis for discussions and pre-negotiations on the nuclear issue and other matters.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - the baseball equivalent of being out in left field - said the US would protect its allies and interests, while Iranian military officials said that they had their finger on the trigger at all times to protect their country.

What does all this add up to? I'd say it is a display of classic statecraft: fighting and threatening while simultaneously sending signals of a desire to negotiate and make a deal. We are witnessing three simultaneous, important developments: the two loose camps linked to the US and Iran have recognized that their respective power is limited, that the other side will fight back fiercely, and that they are, in fact, roughly evenly matched on the ground throughout the Middle East. So, they both have to behave like normal countries for a change, fighting and talking at the same time.

Posted by Laura at July 13, 2008 12:26 AM