What have I missed in a week abroad? Well, for a start, Doctor iRack is blogging up at a storm at Abu Muqawama: see Iran in Iraq Part I here, Part II here, Sadr City here, Iraq's Arab neighbors here and Basra here to start. (And the good doctor got an early start blogging here, close observers may note). You'll definitely want to bookmark the whole site dominated by the counterinsurgency mafia if you haven't yet already. (Also, COIN godfather David Kilcullen writes on "political maneuvering in counterinsurgency" at SmallWarsJournal, drawing on a recent case study of road building in Kunar province, Afghanistan.)

On a related topic to Dr. iRack's postings, the Post reports that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen said "the Pentagon is planning for 'potential military courses of action' as one of several options against Iran, criticizing what he called the Tehran government's 'increasingly lethal and malign influence' in Iraq." It's all part of an increased rhetorical campaign by the administration to get Iran to reverse an alleged uptick in bad acting Iraq, the Post further reports: "Mullen's statements and others by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates recently signal new rhetorical pressure on Iran by the Bush administration amid what officials say is increased Iranian provision of weapons, training and financing to Iraqi groups that are attacking and killing Americans. In a speech Monday, Gates said Iran 'is hell-bent on acquiring nuclear weapons.' He said war would be 'disastrous' but added that 'the military option must be kept on the table, given the destabilizing policies of the regime and the risks inherent in a future Iranian nuclear threat.'"

Meantime, the NYT reports that questions and doubts linger on the administration case that Iran has recently intensified its bad acting in Iraq: "... Some intelligence and administration officials said Iran seemed to have carefully calibrated its involvement in Iraq over the last year, in contrast to what President Bush and other American officials have publicly portrayed as an intensified Iranian role. It remains difficult to draw firm conclusions about the ebb and flow of Iranian arms into Iraq, and the Bush administration has not produced its most recent evidence. But interviews with more than two dozen military, intelligence and administration officials showed that while shipments of arms had continued in recent months despite an official Iranian pledge to stop the weapons flow, they had not necessarily increased. ..." Since many of the allegations aren't new, what has prompted the latest round of saber rattling, as Senator Dianne Feinstein put it to the Times? The dust settling after the recent Iraqi government operation in Basra, the paper reports: "Much of the new evidence of Iranian activity in Iraq emerged during the Iraqi-led operation last month to seize control of Iraq’s second largest city, Basra. A senior administration official described the fighting in Basra as 'a clarifying moment' for the Iraqis, as well as the Americans, about the extent of Iran’s involvement."

Posted by Laura at April 27, 2008 06:46 AM