Amos Harel and Avi Issachoroff:

...On Friday one had the impression that Hamas was trying to end the current cycle of violence, and therefore fired considerably fewer Qassam rockets (nine compared with about 40 per day over the previous two days). But the decision in Israel was to continue the attacks, the intention being to prevent Hamas from dictating the pace of the confrontation, or its intensity.

After the operation in Jabalya and the high number of Palestinian deaths, it will take longer to achieve relative calm. But even if calm is restored, through Egyptian mediation, it is likely to be temporary. Israel is quickly approaching the point at which it will embark on a major ground operation, which may happen in a few weeks. Even before the operation begins, Israel may decide to assassinate Hamas political leaders.

The government has mostly bad options. Even a ground operation will not immediately contain the launching of Qassam rockets, and it is doubtful whether it will achieve a long-term solution. ...

Noted, the major ground operation is still to come.

Zvi Bar'el: Get ready for the third intifadah. " ...The moment that war begins in the Gaza Strip, it will not be a war against Hamas; it will be seen as a war against the most downtrodden and poor segment of the Palestinian people, against women and children, a war that cannot leave the West Bank indifferent. The opening of a second front, on the east, against Israel, should then come as no surprise."

Posted by Laura at March 2, 2008 06:42 AM