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I went to see the Jordanian king and delegation speak at Princeton yesterday. Will write more about his visit at one of my mags after I get some things off my plate. But here's the question. What's the one thing King Abdullah is really asking President Bush when he meets with him Tuesday? What's the one thing he really needs? He needs the spreading turmoil in the neighborhood not to cause unrest inside Jordan. We're most likely not going to have a big war - with Iran - before Bush leaves office. But it seems we may be in for a bunch of small wars, or near wars, involving Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel, Gaza, peripherally Syria and in the background Iran, upheaval deeply threatening to a country like Jordan whose internal stability is a balancing act.
(It's a theory I first saw here upon the assassination of Mugniyah and I think it is playing out.)
Was the assassination of Mugniyah the "Sarajevo" of the coming conflicts, as former CIA officer Robert Baer told me he's hearing from his friends in the region? Perhaps that's overblown but we'll see. It all does seem far more tumultuous than a hollowed out Annapolis process, lacking any political will or conviction, can right. And even more threatening, after more violence and bloodshed and stall, the undermining of confidence in a two state solution ever being realized.
Posted by Laura at March 1, 2008 10:26 AM