 |
|
ABC gets an advanced look at the NIE on Iraq, whose unclassified key findings are to be released today at 2:30pm:
Posted by Laura at August 23, 2007 12:23 PMThe NIE report says, "There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq's security situation since our last National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in January 2007. The steep escalation of rates of violence has been checked for now, and overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks."
The report goes on to say, "Coalition forces, working with Iraqi forces, tribal elements, and some Sunni insurgents, have reduced al-Qaida in Iraq's (AQI) capabilities, restricted its freedom of movement, and denied it grassroots support in some areas. However, the level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high; Iraq's sectarian groups remain unreconciled; AQI retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively. There have been modest improvements in economic output, budget execution, and government finances but fundamental structural problems continue to prevent sustained progress in economic growth and living conditions."
Other key findings from the National Intelligence Estimate:
-Iraq's security will continue to improve modestly during the next six to 12 months, but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance.
-Broadly accepted political compromises required for sustained security, long term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift in the factors driving Iraqi political and security developments.
As for the fight against Al Qaeda, which the administration has been touting, the report says, "…the emergence of 'bottom-up' security initiatives, principally among Sunni Arabs and focused on combating AQI represent the best prospect for improved security over the next six to 12 months, but we judge these initiatives will only translate into widespread political accommodation and enduring stability if the Iraqi government accepts and support them. We also assess that under some conditions 'bottom-up initiatives' could pose risks to the Iraq government."