The Institute for Science and International Security's David Albright and Jacqueline Shire report (.pdf), "Despite Iran failing to meet U.S. Security Council demands to halt enrichment, progress at Natanz is slower than expected."

Iran has made limited progress at its Natanz uranium enrichment plant, installing and operating fewer gas centrifuges than expected. Senior Vienna-based diplomats have confirmed to ISIS that Iran may be either delaying deliberately the pace of its work while diplomatic efforts are underway, or is experiencing technical problems with its centrifuge program. ...

Iran has also failed to install as many cascades in the Natanz pilot plant as expected. In April 2006, U.S. government and IAEA officials expected Iran to have installed five cascades ... It now appears that Iran has not begun to operate the second and third cascades at the pilot plant, although they may be close to completion. ...

It is possible that Iran's leadership has deferred installation out of concern that the facility would be a target of military strikes should diplomacy fail to resolve the nuclear issue. It is also possible that Iran has prepared undisclosed facilities for research and development of uranium centrifuges and deployment of additional cascades, although no evidence of such facilities currently operating has emerged from IAEA inspections.

The ISIS August 31 issue brief is available here.

Posted by Laura at September 3, 2006 01:58 PM