Scanning the front pages of tomorrow's papers, there's an ominous lack of clarity about what exactly Israel has agreed to do in the next 48 hours, by way of halting air attacks in southern Lebanon in order to investigate what happened at Qana. The State Department says the attacks will be halted in southern Lebanon for 48 hours, and in addition, remaining civilians will have 24 hours to evacuate southern Lebanon (why they couldn't use the whole 48 hours of suspended air attacks isn't clear). Top Israeli military writer Ze'ev Schiff contends it's in Beirut the air strikes will be halted. It's not clear if his piece was written before the State Department announcement. Whatever the case, one wonders, given the next two days of continued furious diplomacy at the UN Security Council and affected capitals, how hard it will be to resume a widespread air campaign on Tuesday after two days of suspension. Two days from now is Tuesday, and Rice had hoped for some sort of resolution by as early as Wednesday. If Israel halts its assaults, does it calculate that it will be harder to resume again? Presumably, even if an agreement is signed this week, it will still be weeks before an international force of 10,000 to 30,000 peacekeepers could be assembled and deployed. What is interesting: all the signs are that it was Washington that pressured Israel into suspending air strikes in certain areas. That it was described as being in order to allow an investigation into what happened at Qana seems a way to call it anything else but a temporary partial ceasefire. One that there is hardly a word directly from Israel to explain. State did very little to disguise that Israel's agreement to suspend air operations was written hastily on State Department stationery. What's the suggested subtext? I'm just guessing but it seems Rice may genuinely be disturbed that her repeated calls for restraint to avoid civilian casualties were not heeded, and Israel is not happy about what it has been asked to agree to.

Posted by Laura at July 30, 2006 11:32 PM