Chris Nelson:

Events are happening in the US/China/Russia negotiations on Iran and N. Korea faster than analysts can keep up...but clearly there is something which may amount to a “grand bargain” now in play. Whether either the Iranians or N. Koreans are IN on the play remains to be seen, of course...and immediate US, and Japanese reaction to the N. Korea part of the ploy is mixed.

First, on Iran, with the G-8 in Russia starting soon, Russia and China seem to have concluded that Tehran’s leadership is dangerous, and that strong action at the UN, as urged by the US and EU, is warranted. Russia and China seem to have agreed to start a process at the UN which could lead to sanctions...if not military action...and so to an absolute reversal of their prior positions, and a clear threat to their previously expressed economic and strategic interests.

But for now, at least, Russia and China apparently are prepared to demand that Iran agree to an immediate freeze of all its nuclear activities...something Iran (confident of being protected from sanctions by Russia and China) has repeatedly said it would not do.

What’s going on behind the curtain?

It may be that Iran is being traded for N. Korea, in the mind of China, at least, if not also Russia. Simultaneously with the stunning announcement in Paris on Iran, Chinese and Russian diplomats in New York, at the UN, announced what on the surface is another major compromise from their past positions...that they now will support a UNSC resolution on N. Korea. ...

NYT: Russia, China Support Sanctions Threat for Iran. "Still, another European official said, the statement was a watershed — 'the first time Russia and China have agreed to go to the Security Council under Chapter 7.'”

Posted by Laura at July 12, 2006 07:26 PM