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Rain Delay. Chris Nelson on North Korea:
"What's your bet on the Korean missile," he concludes his report. "Will we wake up to news of a launch?"With no test so far, the N. Korean missile test story just won’t go away, and the interesting consensus now developing is that “this time, Kim Jong-il seems to have outsmarted himself”. That’s because it now seems certain that the whole controversy has put Chinese and S. Korean support for Pyongyang in a very difficult position, almost regardless of what finally happens...and the whole thing is adding up to a big boost for missile defense/hard liners in both Japan and the US.
One wag went so far as to quip, “If you ask me, KJI has gone on Cheney’s payroll!” At a minimum, private US analysts agree, any missile firing would have to be interpreted as a firm declaration by N. Korea that it has no intention of returning to the 6 Party Talks process, much less of seeking serious negotiations with the Bush Administration.
This conclusion has, in reality, been increasingly the consensus of both pro and anti engagement forces for some time now, it should be noted. That it is also the preferred option of Administration hardliners has been debated for years, as we have been reporting.
As for the missile itself, depending on which particular intelligence leak you wish to believe, it sounds like weather is the determining factor in “no launch so far”; earlier forecasts had it bad for the rest of the week. Whether the nerves of decision-makers in Seoul, Washington, Tokyo and Beijing could hold up that long is becoming an interesting question.
But we gather that the latest forecast is for sunshine (literally, not a policy) over N. Korea when dawn breaks shortly...so stay tuned. ...