Karona. As promised, Bill Arkin writes about the Marines wargaming conflict with a thinly veiled country called Karona:

In 2005, a Karonan reformist president is voted out in a fraudulent and hotly contested election. And riots and unrest broke out throughout the country. The conservatives eventually emerged victorious, but Karonan society split. By 2010, the military had been purged of those who supported the earlier reformists. But the military had also suffered under the new government and was not, in the words of the Marine Corps "a truly modern force."

By 2010, "radical" Karona was not only asserting itself in the region, but resisting any U.S. presence. Oil prices dropped in 2013 -- who writes these things? -- and Karona decides to boost its revenues by taking control of the waters off its coast, including international waters, charging a tariff on all products, particularly oil, passing through.

In 2014, the United Nations passes a resolution denouncing Karona’s actions as a violation of the freedom of the seas, but the Security Council stops short of approving any action. The American President directs CENTCOM to open international waters along the coast, and the Marine Corps springs in action.

Go read what happens next.

Arkin adds, "In the real world though, Karona easily morphs into Iran. Like the early 1990's nuclear war planning I discussed yesterday, the danger with the Karonan scenario is that in the U.S. military, the political scenario and over-the-top characterization of the enemy begins to look like reality. For Iranians looking in, the certain assumption on the part of the Americans of an aggressive and reckless Iran feeds a picture of American military preparedness that could be seen not just as prudent but also as a harbinger of a pre-ordained clash."

Tomorrow on Arkin's itinerary, Army planning.

Posted by Laura at April 12, 2006 12:15 PM