Writing in the LA Times, the Project for the New American Century's Gary Schmitt analyzes why the EU constitution may be rejected today in a referendum in France. In Schmitt's cross hairs, Europe's "political elites":

...As longtime observers of Europe are fond of pointing out, European political elites have always found ways to keep their integration dreams moving along. They have done so by keeping their ultimate goal fuzzy while contending that any new arrangements would not fundamentally change the EU's character. There's a limit to that strategy. As German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said in a May 2000 speech, the contradiction between what the European Union had become (and would probably become) and the political arrangements that could give it democratic legitimacy was increasingly unsustainable. But the European elites that created the problem — and that recently expanded the EU from 15 to 25 members without consulting the public — have not found a way to write a constitution to solve it.

Commentators here and in France have belittled French opponents of the constitution as "know-nothings" — partisans with exaggerated fears of immigration, globalization and Gaullist decline. There is some truth to that characterization. But these French "know-nothings" know something important: It matters whether citizens can control the government that controls them.

If the EU constitution goes down in flames, Europe's political elites would do well to remind themselves of that simple but profound point as they decide their next course.

Democracy Arsenal's Heather Hurlburt hears much the same thing:

Folks I talk to confirm what we're seeing in commentary; this represents less a specific rejection of the frankenstein-of-a-constitution than a general sense of unease with the EU's "democratic deficit" overlaid by a very specific sense of anger at incumbent governments, the problems associated with immigration, and --dare I say it? -- a soupcon of malaise with the 21st century in general.

Meantime, DA's Derek Chollet suggests one surprising winner of a French no vote may be the UK's Europe-supporting Tony Blair -- and a hundred European think tanks:

Oddly enough, one person who is secretly happy about all of this is British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has committed to holding a British referendum on the constitution sometime in the next few years. The EU constitution is even more unpopular in Britain, and most consider a British “yes” even more improbable. One of Blair’s fears was that all other countries would have approved the constitution and that the fate of the treaty would hinge entirely on Britain. With a French no, he’s off the hook. And in July, Britain takes over its six-month presidency of the EU (a rotation that the EU constitution would end), which gives Blair a chance to lead the effort to pick up the pieces from this mess – which is one way to work his way back from the Continental beating he has taken over Iraq.

Several people have argued that the French vote today is as much a referendum on Chirac as on the EU constitution itself, so it's worth noting the immediate benefactor of the anticipated French non vote today is Chirac's former protege turned rival, Nicolas Sarkozy, who one might have admired more if he wasn't playing on French fears of Turkish accession into the EU.

Update: And it's no. Result analysis via Praktike ahd Heather Hurlburt.

Posted by Laura at May 29, 2005 10:44 AM