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Tad Szulc's 1978 New Republic essay on the global political implications of the election of Poland's Karol Cardinal Wojtyla to the papacy stands up remarkably well to the test of time:
Unlike his predecessors in recent centuries, John Paul II comes to Rome as a hardened political fighter, as well as an impressive theological intellectual...
When I met Cardinal Wojtyla in Warsaw last November--he was on one of his periodic visits to the capital from his Krakow archdiocese--I was impressed by the depth of his detailed understanding of foreign policy problems. He was interested in the prospects of Soviet-American detente under the Carter administration, the president's human rights policy, Middle Eastern and African developments and third world tensions.
As we talked about human rights, the cardinal spoke with passion of the need to advance them in Poland. And from the point of view of the church, he told me, "the most important thing is not obtaining permits to build more churches, but winning the right to teach religion in the schools and--crucially--to assure access by Catholics to the mass media without official censorship." [...]
Given all this background, John Paul II looms as an eminently modern pontiff operating on a top level of international politics. His election has already enhanced the political role and the prestige of the church in a world where Catholicism has been suffering a loss of influence...
Should, indeed, the election of John Paul II trigger a new wave of dissent, the problem facing Warsaw--and Moscow--will be how much tolerance can be afforded without undermining of the Communist system in the long run. The decision will be immensely difficult, given Poland's deep economic troubles and the consequent danger that any return to a hard line toward the church and its spiritual and political followers could touch off an explosion...
"What will Warsaw and Moscow do if a 'Prague Spring' emerges in Poland with church support?" a diplomat in Washington asked, referring to the aborted Czechoslovak experiment in socialist freedom in 1968. "Will they intervene decisively with a Polish Pope on the throne in Rome?" It is in this sense that the accession of John Paul II has created a new dimension in Communist and East-West politics, a dimension that cannot yet be precisely defined, but that cannot fail to significantly affect the overall picture.