http://www.warandpiece.com/

Look here for a pretty good explanation on Uranium enrichment. The BBC used to have a fairly decent explanation of the entire bomb building process from A-Z using great graphics.

It shows how one can basically take Plutonium and using a shape charge similar to what one might find in the mining industry create a reasonably destructive Plutionium bomb.

The Uranium bomb seemed a bit more complex requiring a "gun like" mechanism to induce the chain reaction.

-- manoppello

Laura, For a really decent full blown explanation of how ithe process of creating bombs and nuclear fuel all fit together read this article produced by the BBC. The nice thing about it, it goes from A-Z.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/world/2003/nuclear_fuel_cycle/mining/default.stm

- manoppello

Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

The Europeans initially thought they could live with Hitler's Nazis.

Laura, Your last sentence is the number one reason we need to elect Kerry in November. President Bush has already ignored the advice of Generals and other military officers in Iraq. When Powell said that if you break it you have to fix it, Bush had no idea what he meant.

The take in the French press is that the US set a most unfortunate precendent vis-a-vis North Korea by throwing up its hands and shrugging. I rather doubt that Madeleine Albright would disagree. To the extent that the Bush administration has not seen fit to perpetuate the previous administration's policy of diplomatic containment in Asia -- or any anti-proliferation policy at all other than direct threats aimed at Iran -- Iran has concluded that it would be best to profit from the rift between the US and the EU, not to speak of the blind eye turned toward Israel's arsenal, and simply proceed to enrichment asap. Would the Europeans take the matter to the Security Council? It's not to be excluded -- but not before Nov. 2. It would be foolish to suppose that "Europe thinks it can live with a nuclear Iran." Rather, the neoconservative "Grand Strategy" (see the new Committe on the Present Danger magazine so named) has rendered European diplomatic initiatives relatively useless. Secret talks with France, Germany and GB continue. But Iran is in the US/Israeli cross-hairs, while its neighbor is burning. What would you do? And whatever happened to the alleged secret talks between the US and Iran?

Laura reports on the deteriorating situation in Iraq :
"It's worse than you think." Attacks on coalition forces are intensifying and getting more effective; no-go zones, which the military prefers to call "insurgent enclaves," are spreading - even in Baghdad. We're losing ground."

Perhaps its a good time to take heed of the words of Abraham Lincoln:

"Neither party expected for the war, the magnitude, or the duration, which it has already attained. Neither anticipated that the cause of the conflict might cease with, or even before, the conflict itself should cease. Each looked for an easier triumph, and a result less fundamental and astounding. Both read the same Bible, and pray to the same God; and each invokes His aid against the other. It may seem strange that any men should dare to ask a just God's assistance in wringing their bread from the sweat of other men's faces; but let us judge not, that we be not judged. The prayers of both could not be answered; that of neither has been answered fully. The Almighty has His own purposes."

And a favorite used in Disney's Hall of Presidents:

"At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it? Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never! All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years. At what point, then, is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide."

-- manoppello

The idea of an oil embargo on Iran is a non-starter. Can you say $80.00/barrel crude? I am still not sure why, if Israel and Pakistan and Russia and China are nuclear-armed to the hilt, it is so outrageous for Iran to join the nuclear club. At this point in human history only the United States has ever actually used atomic weapons, and I believe that even today, Israel and the United States, due to certain religious convictions, would be far more likely to use them than anyone else.

Another point, I am sorry, but given the fact that the United States has ZERO credibilty in the world at this time when it comes to being perceived as an honest and just state, who is going to believe more WMD blather from the likes of messiah-boys like Cheney or Bush? U.S. credibility, like it or not, will only improve when the people of the world see that the citizens of America are both smart and realistic enough to throw out the current catastrophe in the white house.

Else,
No one here even among the more moderates that I have found genuinely believes that there is any diplomatic incentive for Iran to abandon its nuclear program. It's broadly popular nationally and Europe already trades extensively with Iran and is reluctant to give it up, much less Iranian oil.
I agree with you about Bush-North Korea failures and lessons learned for Iran. But IRan could be learning the wrong lessons.

I apologize for no link, but I read an article by a neocon a few weeks back advocating eventual action within Iran. One of his points was that 70% of the population already supports us.

There they go again.

'The question that all Americans want peace and security is not an issue in this campaign. The question is: Are we moving in the direction of peace and security? Is our relative strength growing? Is our prestige at an alltime high, as he said a week ago, and that of the terrorists and extremists at an alltime low? I don't believe it is. I don't believe that our relative strength is increasing. The fact is that the polls on our prestige and influence around the world have shown an extremely sharp drop.

The point of all this is: This is a struggle in which we're engaged. I believe that this struggle is going to go on and it may be well decided in the next decade.

We want peace. We want freedom. We want security. We want to be stronger. We want freedom to gain. But I don't believe, in these changing and revolutionary times, this administration has known that the world is changing, has identified itself with that change.

I think we have to demonstrate to the people of the world that we're determined in this free country of ours to be first--not first "if" and not first "but" and not first "when" but first.

And when we are strong and when we are first, then freedom gains. Then the prospects for peace increase. Then the prospects for our society gain.'

Paraphrased JFK 4th debate

How to debate the issue of national security, possibly a proven formula continued:

"Terror is not a new weapon. Throughout history it has been used by those who could not prevail, either by persuasion or example. But inevitably they fail, either because men are not afraid to die for a life worth living, or because the terrorists themselves came to realize that free men cannot be frightened by threats, and that aggression would meet its own response. And it is in the light of that history that every nation today should know, be he friend or foe, that the United States has both the will and the weapons to join free men in standing up to their responsibilities."

JFK

"THE FLIP-FLOPPING NANNY: Saletan on Bush. Bush is for big government except when he's against it; he's for restraining spending, except when he's boosting it; he's for rooting out insurgents in Iraq, until he favors a more "sensitive" strategy; he's for free trade, except when he's against it; he's against stem cell research, except when he's bragging about it; he's pro states rights, unless they do things he disapproves of; he's in favor of responsibility, except when it comes to the budget; he's pro-U.N., except when he's against it; he's for church-state separation, except when it comes to federal funding."

"Any decent opponent would make mincemeat of Bush's wavering, straddling and inconsistent policy pronouncements.
But Kerry is useless. And if he's this useless as a candidate, how good would he be as a president?"

Kerry obviously does a very poor job of emulating his hero, the other JFK. Kerry and his brilliant staff make if feel as if a vote for Kerry is a vote for Calvin Coolige : "He followed Warren G. Harding to the White House Mr. Harding, whose sponsor declared very frankly that the times did not demand a first-rate President. "

But the times really do demand someone of higher competency and purpose than George W. Bush, John F. Kerry, or Ralph Nader.

-- manoppello

The above quote came from Andrew Sullivan, AndrewSullivan.com..

- m

Laura, what are the *right* lessons that Iran could be learning?

I find the argument that the Europeans don't want to give up their trade with Iran fairly tendentious. Of course, they don't. But do you imagine that they are thrilled to see US policy encouraging nuclear proliferation in greater proximity to them than to the US? And what good is Iranian oil or caviar and Total/Fina/Elf revenues if the region goes up in flames or the mullahs simply get their noses out of joint?

Just to play *devil's advocate*: at this stage, the compelling diplomatic initiatives would have to come from the US -- perhaps in the unofficial way that used to be reserved for the Taliban?

Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The Europeans initially thought they could live with Hitler's Nazis.

Those who learn the wrong lesson from history are doomed to make themselves look like idiots on the Internet.

Iran is not Nazi Germany. A distinct lack of legions pouring over the borders and invading other people's countries is a major clue. Iran isn't even interested in this.

As far as I can tell, Iran's interests are (depending on faction) (i) domestic stabilisation and growth, (ii) increasing its influence within the Islamic world, especially the ex-Soviet states and (iii) deterring the Americans. It wants to be a Muslim version of France.

Nuclear weapons, in this context, are not aggressive weapons. They're a threat of retaliation - a deterrant. To compare Iran to Nazi Germany, you're asserting that Iran will attempt a territorial war against Europe relying on nukes - which is preposterous.

"I ask you to stop and think for a moment what it would mean to have nuclear weapons in so many hands, in the hands of countries large and small, stable and unstable, responsible and irresponsible, scattered throughout the world. There would be no rest for anyone then, no stability, no real security, and no chance of effective disarmament. There would only be the increased chance of accidental war, and an increased necessity for the great powers to involve themselves in what otherwise would be local conflicts."

"If only one thermonuclear bomb were to be dropped on any American, Russian, or any other city, whether it was launched by accident or design, by a madman or by an enemy, by a large nation or by a small, from any corner of the world, that one bomb could release more destructive power on the inhabitants of that one helpless city than all the bombs dropped in the Second World War."

Prediction come true? John F. Kennedy at the height of the cold war after the signing of the first Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

- manoppello

A tad OT: It's probably worthwhile to follow the Fukuyama/Krauthammer debate that's taking place in Foreign Affairs. As the Fuku essay is available by subscription only, anyone interested can google toward the short version in The Australian. Krauthammer's initial lecture is available at AEI. In today's Financial Times, Fuku makes the case for the umpteenth time that Bush's policy has been a total disaster. This defection by someone who launched the "end of history" teleological justification for spreading democracy and who still describes himself as a dyed-in-the-wool neoconservative may have reverberations.

Phoenician,

The Islamic Republic is the Henry Ford of Islamic Terrorism. It's leaders are wildly unpopular with its people. Those leaders have been committed to a war by proxy that has made both the lives of Palestinians and Israelis more miserable. Last year its council of experts stole an election by not allowing any reformers to run for the majlis. Its revolutionary guards are funding and arming any number of insurgents in Iraq. Iran may not be Nazi Germany but it is a pariah and force of great instability.

Many claim that Libya may still have the ability and is still willing to build weapons, according to the BBC. Despite Bush's claims.

There is Iran, Pakistan, and Israel. There is also India, North and South Korea and apparently, as a result, Japan has also been secretly working on developing weapons grade materials. Now, imagine sub-Saharan African nations, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Syria.

I think there is a very good argument for asserting that the Bush administration has created an environment in which nuclear proliferation by smaller nation states has not only grown but increased exponentially in response to American foreign policy.

"There would be no rest for anyone then, no stability, no real security, and no chance of effective disarmament. There would only be the increased chance of accidental war, and an increased necessity for the great powers to involve themselves in what otherwise would be local conflicts."

comenius writes: "I am still not sure why, if Israel and Pakistan and Russia and China are nuclear-armed to the hilt, it is so outrageous for Iran to join the nuclear club."

One reason is that at least one high ranking Iranian official has publicly announced the intention of acquiring nuclear weapons for offensive - rather than defensive - purposes.

you write: "and I believe that even today, Israel and the United States, due to certain religious convictions, would be far more likely to use them than anyone else."

And you don't think the mullah's "religious convictions" rise to a level which would make you at least include them in that group?

Something interesting from the NYT:

Gail Collins - New York Times :4:23 PM ET September 14, 2004 (#2 of 4)

Ah, Mr. Vignos, I remember when the first George Bush picked Dan Quayle as his vice presidential candidate and people kept saying how cute he was and how he would sure be a big selling point with the ladies, wink wink. And I think that ticket, too, wound up on the wrong side of the gender gap.

The bitter truth is that there are very, very few men practicing the art of politics on a national level who cause women to fantasize about heavy petting.
( I wonder if John F. Kennedy had that effect?)

As far as I can tell, the gender gap is about the fact that women voters tend to be more emotionally conservative than men. In other words, they don't like to take chances. When candidates talk about eliminating the social safety net they tend, as a group, to be more worried about what could go wrong. When candidates talk about wars they tend, as a group, to be more worried about what could go wrong. Ever since the gender gap was first discovered (around 1980 -- we celebrate it in conjunction with Arbor Day), women have tended toward the Democrats.

The Bush campaign figures they can out-safe John Kerry with the 9-11 card. My impression, Mr. Rutledge, is that the current polls aren't showing a particularly large gap -- certainly nothing close to the numbers you describe.

You know if you slice and dice the gender gap you'll find that it depends a whole lot on the kind of woman you're talking about. For the Democrats black women are sort of the gold standard of party loyalty. But married white women are an entirely different story. Single women tend to vote Democratic but not to go to the polls as regularly as married women, so the Dems are devoting a lot of effort to getting out the unmarried female vote.

And then there is this from the NYT:

"A sometimes coy commentator, Dowd lets her views trickle out in caustic observations and witticisms. ''All presidents are in a bubble,'' she writes in a sharp introduction, ''but the boy king was so insulated he was in a thermos.'' In her Kennebunkport burlesque of ''Dynasty,'' the ''dauphin'' is protected from reality by his ''regents,'' foremost among them Vice President Dick Cheney, typically referred to as Bush's ''baby sitter'' or ''chaperone.''

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/29/books/review/29WEISBER.html?ex=1095307200&en=c48c81af958a7a49&ei=5070

...and this is why Iran and Iraq ARE connected.

A nuclear Iran is a reality we best get comfortable with. Some say Iran already has nukes smuggled from Russia, and regardless they will have a domestic capacity in less than 15 months.

Worry about Iranian proxies, not the Iranians. The Iranians went to school on surrogate warfare watching Afghanistan in the 80's. If stingers were good for the Muj, an untraceable nuke is the ideal tool for Hezbollah. Nobody kills untraceably and without reprisal like Iran (Khobar, Lebanon, Israel, Italy, etc).

Awesome destructive power in unaccountable, hidden hands, and John Kerry as president (shudder).

Which brings me to Iraq. Civil war in Iraq is more a "quagmire" for Iran than the US. Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Turkey need the Baathists to prevail against the Shiites. A Shiite favored policy in Iraq (as we see now) may look like a loser for the US, but in the long haul it forces a lot of countries to get their hands dirty to protect their interests.

Iran is emboiled in an expensive conflict in another country, while its economy is in ruins and its people are very slowly moving toward a desire for change.

But the left prefers the alternative, a nuclear Iran undistracted by anything but its own ambition. Left unchecked a nuclear Iran under its current leadership is... More on that in a later comment after I eat dinner.

Else,

You have the best read on the situation. Iran is in a regional arms race against a bellicose and expanding Israel at the same time that it is doing its pitiful best to protect itself against increasing threats from the U.S. And, let me add, it is actually bad news that Iran is not in a good position against either adversary, because a slaughter of the Iranians would threaten not just the price of oil but would cross a line with the Russians. Bush and Cheney are doing more to restart the cold war--locus, Middle East--and prime the recrudescence of Russian military power than anyone thought possible. IMHO!

Dictatorships in Iran don't last, but how far is the theocracy willing to go to stay in power, and what will they do at the brink of a fall from power?

This theocratic dictatorship rules through fanatic followers and while I think the Mullah's are too rationale and conniving to use nuclear weapons, I worry about their abilty to keep them from the hands of their own fanatics.

You can't purge a dictatorship of the tool it uses to stay in power, so the regime must be made to fall. To do otherwise is to invite catastrophe.

** Read: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0471265179/qid=1095207639/sr=8-1/ref=pd_cps_1/104-9909757-5663922?v=glance&s=books&n=507846

"If stingers were good for the Muj, an untraceable nuke is the ideal tool for Hezbollah."

Ahem - one simple question:

For what purpose?

Sorry - I should have been clearer. "For what purpose would Iran do this?"

One of the things that really gets up my nose about Americans such as the person posting as George Santayana is just the where the fuck were the Americans throughout the thirties and into the forties. If the Americans had taken a stand with the British and French over the remilitarisation of the Rhineland, history would have been very different.
If Hitler hadn't been dumb enough to declare war on the United States, there were many in the United States, particularly Republicans, who would have made sure that the United States would have stayed out of the European War. BTW, the Tripartite Agreement only required the other Axis powers to declare war if one of them was attacked. Hitler could quite happily have turned to the Japanese and told them to piss off as he was busy enough with his own war on Russia which the Japanese had elected not to get involved in after their defeat at Nomonhan (aka Khalkhin Gol) by the Russians. So Americans, and particularly Republicans, including the current President, should shut up about appeasement and the entire world should shut up about the strategic abilities of Adolf Hitler who was a moron!
Thank god for Democrats such as Roosevelt.

"Sorry - I should have been clearer. "For what purpose would Iran do this?"
------------------------------

Well, in my second post I stated I was most concerned about Iranian leadership failing to keep nukes out of the hands of overzealous actors in its regime. As we've all seen in the change of power in Russia, a crumbling regime has a difficult time keeping its weapons where they belong... they end up in the most unlikely of places.

But, if Iran were to sponsor a WMD attack in Israel or the west, there would be plenty of Iranian leadership past support for such action:

quote: Imam Khomeini - "We must all rise, destroy Israel and replace it."

From IRNA ... quote: "incumbent on every Muslim man and woman to do whatever possible to ''launch a Jihad against the enemies of God and Islam and humanity.""

From IRNA ... quote: ""Failures of the Zionist regime and its accomplice, the United States, have forced these criminals to resort to new tactics in order to save themselves.."

... this was all without digging too hard. And if I can paraphrase, misunderstand and misquote so can a group of junior commanders and revolutionary guards intent on making good on their interpretation of the Imam's words. There is no security against the use of WMD unless those with the keys are insulated from and too rational for the madness of those who think without discipline.

"Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

Right. Which is why the Mullahs and President Khatami should keep one eye open for the next Mossadeq. The next liberator of Iran will enjoy the support of the world and the sooner she comes the faster Iran will enjoy a prospertiy its people have been robbed of for centuries.

Well, in my second post I stated I was most concerned about Iranian leadership failing to keep nukes out of the hands of overzealous actors in its regime.

A good concern - but I have to wonder whether military action against Iran is going to actually repress such over zealous actors.

As regards Israel and Iran, I seriously doubt that (assuming the place hasn't fallen to the completely insane) they will give nukes to the groups fighting against Israel, exposing themselves to direct retaliation as a result. If a nuke goes off in Israel, parts of Iran will be glowing within the hour - and they know it.

Demonstrate to me that, as it is at present, Iran should be considered more irresponsible with nuclear weapons than Pakistan. Pakistan, after all, helped create and supported Al Qaeda.

"Demonstrate to me that, as it is at present, Iran should be considered more irresponsible with nuclear weapons than Pakistan. Pakistan, after all, helped create and supported Al Qaeda."

Pakistan, through its chief Nuclear scientist, also helped Iran and North Korea get past some of the hurdles associated with processing the fuel and then creating the bombs.

And then there's the Pakistani secret service and their connection to Al Qaida.

As John F. Kennedy predicted, spiraling Nuclear proliferation, to any small state, but especially in countries like Israel, Pakistan, and India is a recipe for geopolitical catastrophe and then an extinction level event.

-- manoppello

Hey! I have a great idea! If Israel got off the Palestinians land (West Bank and Gaza) then maybe Iran would not be made out to be such a villian for standing up to Israel's oppression of the Palestinian people, and they could be better reasoned with, and Israel would have less reason to fear them since Israel would no longer be doing wrong in the eyes of the world! Great idea! Give the Palestinians back their land (West Bank and Gaza) and then we all can breathe a bit easier.

Wow! How simple! I thought of it all by myself! Nobel Peace Prize here I come! Whoopee! And just think people have been tying themselves in knots while the solution to the strife in the Middle East was as plain as the noses on their faces!

A nuclear armed Iran will spur an arms race in the Middle East. The Arabs will not tolerate the Persians and the Jews having nukes when they don't.

"Hello Musharraf? This is Sheikh Mabouti. How much for a nuke?"
"Is that all?"
"I'll wire it over right now."

Then we are really in the deep dung.

Iran's economy is in shambles. They are allocating precious resources to their weapons program and ignoring their core social needs. If their nuke weapons program can somehow be derailed it may allow for economic pain to get so bad that a popular revolution is brought forth. Most experts agree that it is just a matter of time before the younger generation tosses off the Islamists, but in order to for it to be happen sooner than later the Iranian nuke program needs to be derailed.

The West, and Russia, needs to either step up to the plate on some real hard economic sanctions or get special ops in there to sabotage the reactors before they go online.

If 5 years from now there is an independent Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank and Israel has secure, permanent borders then Israel being THE nuclear power in the region just means that they won't get attacked. Permanent borders will put to rest any fears of an expansionist Israel and remove the need for neighboring countries to have nukes to counter Israel.

Although Rockem Sockem Occam is ignoring certain realities and shortcomings with the Palestinian leadership, he has a point about the need for a resolution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. As I explain above, however, the way to a more stablized region is to both derail the Iranian's program and resolve the P-I conflict -- not just the latter.

Right on, Liberty. I agree with you that "the way to a more stablized region is to both derail the Iranian's program and resolve the P-I conflict."

Phoenician, I think nexis of Pakistan security services, Pakistani nuclear weapons and Islamist radical groups is about the scariest thing out there in the world. Maybe I am too influented by Bernard Henri Levy's book about who killed daniel pearl, but I think that is the source of who are going to be killing our grand children. this is why i cannot tolerate neocons' basic shrug about al qaeda. when's the last time you heard perle or his cohorts mention bin laden?

I wouldn't be surprised if several people in the Bush admin/campaign think that a US supported Israeli surpise attack on Iran's nuke facilities would be an excellent "October surprise" to definitively swing the election to Bush.

From a short term electoral standpoint, it allows Bush to enhance his position as "tough" on terrorism (albeit hugely counterproductive medium-long term), which Kerry would either have to agree with or look wimpy, and would do wonders to get out the Jewish vote for the GOP in NY, FL and PA. Iran would likely be unable to respond until after the election.

The fact that such an attack would likely provoke a massive uprising in Shiite Iraq, and even further radicalize the Islamic world in OBL's direction is something that can be dealt with post-election (hey, it can't get much worse there anyway).

While I think doing something like that is absolutely nuts, the Bush admin consistently exceeds even one's worst expectations, so I wouldn't put it past them.

regarding nukes, only the u.s. has used them and in 1983 the american newspapers were filled with stories of a possible nuclear first strike against the soviet union.

Perhaps an excellent "October surprise" would be for Israel to assassinate Arafat and make both Bush and Kerry have to take a stand to see how tough, really tough, they are on terrorists. Bush would have to say the assassination was well within the rights of Israel saying something like, "The only good terraist is a dead terraist!" And Kerry would have to follow suit because the election will pivot on Florida. Sharon would throw this zinger into the election mix as a reminder, and as revenge for the "Israeli Spy" scandal.

This comes to mind because Sharon made statements over the weekend that suggests that it is not out of the question to do Arafat like he's done Hamas leaders, i.e, put a missile through him.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3654928.stm

I can certainly live with a nuclear Iran. I'm in favour of a nuclear balance of power (or balance of deterrence, or terror, if you prefer), since no honest and sane observer can possibly claim that the US or Britain or Israel will ever engage in nuclear disarmament of their own accord, and it should now be equally clear that neither the US nor Israel can be trusted not to use nuclear weapons aggressively. As for Britain, it would be foolish to imagine that it could or would seriously try to stop them, and in the long run Britain will need to transfer its allegiances from the USA to Europe if it wishes to have any independent policies at all. These conclusions all follow from basic balance-of-power considerations, which Americans of both major parties seems to have abandoned, despite Kerry's fatuous remarks about multilateralism : can the mice engage in multilateral agreements with the cat?
I have attached a new and rather hilarious set of rants by Russian Zionists (from 2002)to my blog - they will help you to see how lacking in understanding of the Israeli mentality you liberals are:
http://spookspot.blogspot.com/2004/09/more-fun-with-russian-zionists.html

Uh, my Russian Zionists are not from 2002, they are from 2000, i.e. before 9/11. But it would be erroneous to imagine that 9/11 would have softened their attitude : immediately after the attacks, former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was asked what the attack would mean for US-Israeli relations. His quick reply was: "It's very good……. Well, it's not good, but it will generate immediate sympathy (for Israel)". In other words, 9/11 strengthened the Israeli extreme right, so their remarks from before that time have greater rather than lesser pertinence. This is why I think Laura's idea that Israel can be a force for liberalism in the region is so blinkered and ideological. The reality out there is something else, people.

Strategically, Israel's nuclear capability is generally misunderstood. While the country may have in excess of 200 warheads, given its geographical size, it has 0 second-strike capacity. Think about it.

Secondly, at this point, nothing can resolve the I/P conflict. Two days ago, Netanyahu's father, a well-known historian, published an article in Ha'aretz in which he asserts that anyone who still thinks in Oslo terms is not a rational creature. It's amazing that Ha'aretz published this screed, but Netanyahu's father and brother had signed the settlers' statement, which claims that dismantling any Jewish home is a "crime against humanity." The settlers have threatened "civil war" within weeks, if Sharon withdraws from Gaza. Debkafile claims that Netanyahu, more dangerous because more affiliated with the neocons, will make a move to force new elections and nab the spot as PM. Ha'aretz simultaneously suggested that the IDF may be on the point of a putsch. As long as this situation subsists, the world will teeter on the brink of a major disaster.

Someone (I forget who) testified before Congress just before the Iraq intervention that 25 countries had WMD programs in various stages of completion.

Is al-Quaeda or Islamic fundamentalism in general the greatest threat out there? We really won't know as long as the gangrene continues to spread in Israel and the US pursues the most inflammatory policies possible.

In fact, though not in the war articulated by Mr. Santayana, we are seeing a repeat of the errors committed in Europe in the late 30’s that lead to the German invasion of France in May, 1940. This time it is the foreign policy establishment of the United States (and Israel) that is ossified in its strategic thinking, spawned by the need to cling on to past certainties, manifested by the preference for boilerplate solutions to problems instead of actual geopolitical strategic analysis. This situation is leading, just as the French did in 1940, to US strategists insisting on re-fighting the last war (the Cold War) instead of meeting the new, dazzlingly complicated and profoundly unsettling challenges that actually face them.

Today, ten nations (plus or minus) currently possess nuclear weapons. Ten years from now, this number will be no less than thirty, and in twenty years, 60-70 nations will be nuclear armed.

The Wehrmacht, in May 1940, aided by revolutionary new military tactics, smashed through the French defensive lines at Sedan, in northern France. This is the point at which Europe lost its global hegemony and was henceforth dependant on the US and USSR to save it from itself. The “Sedan” point for nuclear proliferation will be argued about for some time; was it Pakistan developing its nuclear capabilities, was it Bush’s “Axis of Evil” speech, or as I prefer, was it the moment that North Korea was allowed to start reprocessing its spent nuclear rods. Combine the Khan group, the fear induced by an aggressive United States, and the multitude of “unknowables” associated with the North Koreans, and one thing becomes clear, the nuclear proliferation genie is out of the bottle, and all the king’s horses and all the king’s men are not going to be putting this genie back in its bottle again.

Mass nuclear proliferation and non-state geopolitical actors are baffling today’s statesmen in a similar way that the introduction of the Stuka dive bomber and massed armor confounded the prewar French military thinkers, who from painful experience had learned that in modern warfare, quick breakthroughs of your opponent’s line were virtually impossible. The heavy artillery bombardment that preceded such attacks always alerted the enemy to your intentions and a couple well-placed machinegun embankments could easily hold off battalions of charging infantrymen. If the impossible did happen and a breakthrough occurred, the salient that the attackers thus created was open to murderous machinegun fire along its flanks. The attackers artillery had to move forward into the former frontlines where the ground would have been horribly chewed up by the previous pounding by the artillery. The defending artillery was falling back on to its own lines, which is military infinitely easier to do than to move forward.

German military thinkers solved these problems in two ways. By simply replacing the traditional artillery attacks by waves of Stukas and placing the charging infantry into tanks, the Germans rendered obsolete the French generals preference for static defense and leisurely concepts of time on the battlefield. Only de Gaulle among the French generals saw the coming danger, but the hierarchical and deeply conservative French military establishment ignored his pleas to forget Verdun and start planning for the true German threat.

Until November 2004, the Europeans (Britain, France and Germany) are providing Iran with the diplomatic version of a Patriot missile defense system. No serious thinker can actually believe that the Iranians are going to give up their nuclear program in this fashion, least of all the Europeans, who are playing along with this charade. Place yourself in the corridors of power in Tehran and try to imagine a coherent argument as to why the Iranians should not acquire nuclear weapons. There is none. Whether they have them already or not is a moot point, they can always buy them from North Korea if they really need them. The only thing left to work out is the endgame of actually declaring themselves a nuclear power.

The Israelis have every right to fear a nuclear-armed Iran, it is indeed not only an existential threat, but because of the threat posed by certain non-state actors, it makes the occupation of Palestine practically impossible to continue.

The US certainly has less to fear than Israel concerning Iran.. MAD still functions with the Iranians and the non-state threat is only slightly increased since Al Qaida is the real problem for the US and they are not relying on Tehran for weapons.

Which brings me back to this November deadline set by the Europeans. Obviously the Israelis would love for the US to attempt some military action to stop the Iranian nuclear program. This entails huge risks for the Bush Administration. Israel is going to need to apply a huge amount of pressure, an existential threat to the Bush Administration, if you will, in order to get the US to move on this. On November 2, the Israelis task of putting pressure to bear on Bush will become infinitely greater (assuming he wins re-election). Anything the Israelis are holding over Bush’s head is much more valuable in October and next to useless in November. For instance, if Mossad had been trailing the Sept. 11th suspects throughout the US during 2001 and had given the US a detailed warning of what was coming, as has been reported in the press, the leaking of this memo would sink Bush’s re-election chances. One wonders if the recent IAPAC spy scandal is not a Bush Administration attempt to insert some deterrence for Israel into the equation.

The Iranians would no doubt (secretly) welcome an Israeli/American military strike. Such a strike would completely destroy the already moribund Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. The mullahs of Tehran are certainly not stupid enough to have placed their weapon programs in an obvious location, they will have spread them out around the country as much as possible, while at the same time leaving one or two obvious targets on which the Israelis could sate their appetites for action. Such an attack would most likely be nuclear. No one, I mean no one could complain, if six months later, the Iranians tested a nuclear device, having themselves just been victims of such an attack, self-defense would be a clear justification. Sanctions would not even be discussed. Not only that, but the Iranians would “owe Israel one”, an IOU they would count on for later collection.

This is the endgame the Europeans and Iranians are looking for. The NeoCons are still convinced that it was their exaggeration of the Soviet threat in the 70’s and 80’s, and subsequent arms build-up, that lead the USSR to collapse, and thus victory in the Cold War. Most Soviet commentators would say that it was actually the high standard of living that the Social Democrats in Sweden (among others) had provided for their population—within the capitalist system—that had convinced the Soviets that Communism was a failure. No lessons have been learned by the debacle in Iraq, where fourth generational warfare has again baffled and defeated a western power. The same NeoCon boilerplate solution will be applied to Iran, and the results will be similar; by trying to stop the unstoppable, they will just increase the speed and amplitude of nuclear proliferation. The final battle will be within the Bush Administration itself, balancing political realities with foreign policy fantasies.

Gun nuts in the US are proud of the “polite society” created by an armed to the teeth populace. We will be seeing the same phenomenon on the international scene when most major nations are armed with nuclear weapons. The cost of war will again be too high. The antithesis of this polite society will be on the level of non-state actors, where MAD does not function. Finding the synthesis of these two forces is where our future Charles de Gaulles need to be spending their time in order to avoid repeating the mistakes of the French. I don’t even want to imagine what the American equivalent will be of a French General standing on the ridge, overlooking the Meuse, and watching the Nazis flood into his country, sure in the knowledge that there was no longer a damn thing his country could do about it.

I see only one readily identifiable enemy running through the above conversation, and it cuts across all national and cultural boundaries.

Its name is relibious fundamentalism.

Else writes:
"Strategically, Israel's nuclear capability is generally misunderstood. While the country may have in excess of 200 warheads, given its geographical size, it has 0 second-strike capacity. Think about it."

This is not true, I'm afraid. See this story: http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1061381,00.html

Phoenician,

The nice thing about a nuclear Pakistan is the Paks have a tough time keeping secrets. The Pak officials you can't buy off are easily factionalized and minipulated in cooperation or false-flag cooperation. If the US doesn't know whats up then ask the Indians. Indians don't know, pay someone off. Can't find someone to buy, pose as a radical. Can't break in undercover then lean on Musharraf to break some kneecaps for an answer.

Iran is a different story. You know it is. Don't be coy. You don't have to b.s. me about Iran's stability and good intentions to get a good argument out of me. You can conceed to me their belligerence and insanity and we can still argue.

Phoenician, I'm beginning to grow fond of you.

"You can conceed to me their belligerence and insanity and we can still argue."

Proof please. I don't like Iran, and *some* of the comments made by *some* of their leaders *some* of the time are loony, but as far as I can tell, they actually operate as a rational state actor seeking their own advantage.

While I am by no means knowledgable on the internal politics of Iran, I point out three facts:

(i) The comments made by some, or any, politicians in any country mean little compared to the actual actions of that country as a whole. Apart from minor support to anti-Israeli terrorists (not an existential threat to Israel), Iran seems to be fairly conservative in *actual* foreign policy.

(ii) A threat or an actual attack on Iran is unlikely to help the democratic factions against the fundamentalists.

(iii) That a state is unfriendly towards Israel or the US is not, in itself, a sign of insanity, belligerance or irrationality. This is especially true for countries such as, say, Cuba or Iran with which the US has had a long and inglorious history.

You claim they are "belligerant". How exactly is this so? If you want to bring up supporting anti-Israeli terrorism and anti-US resistance in Iraq, then you should compare this with Pakistan's activities in Afghanistan (much worse) or with the actions of Israel and the US, and you should also recognise that the two activities are popular in the Arab world.

Apart from these, what exactly has Iran done that has been "belligerant"? It has not invaded Iraq or Afghanistan. It has not bombed Iraq or Afghanistan. It has sought influence in the former USSR states using videotapes and the Koran rather than armies.

First, before you read my reply, read this (its short)

http://www.rense.com/general42/saved.htm

In a country (region) where men and boys are raised to hate (or fear) Israel, Jews, the US and much of the west; and where suicide and the murder of civilians is sanctioned by its religious leaders, who will be the Iranian Colonel Stanislav Petrov (see above link) to save the region or the world from a nuclear exchange?

I can cite Iranian belligerence toward Azerbaijan, Iraqi Kurds, Saudi Arabia, US, and of course Israel. But what is most belligerent, insane, and irrational is to obtain the means to destroy a perceived enemy and expect the Pasdaran or an element of the Guard not to use it with a manipulative hidden hand, or as a blatent religious act.

I do not feel the comfortable predictability of mutually assured destruction in this instance. If the US lost control of the Mujhadeen, and the Paks lost control of the Taliban, and the Saudi's lost control of Al Qieda, then how do you think Iran will retain command and control? Do you think the Iranian Intelligence Service who has actively sought nuclear materials (some say successfully) just handed them over to the Iranian regular military, or the political leadership? Will that same service who is probably responsible for securing Iran's nuclear sites be kept from accessing those materials?

Dude, you should be real practical here. I don't know where you live but it better be on Mars if you're willing to trust Iran with that much radiation.

"In a country (region) where men and boys are raised to hate (or fear) Israel, Jews, the US and much of the west; and where suicide and the murder of civilians is sanctioned by its religious leaders, who will be the Iranian Colonel Stanislav Petrov (see above link) to save the region or the world from a nuclear exchange?"

You mean apart from the simple facts that Iran is not Russia, will not have 15,000 nuclear weapons mounted on ICBMs capable of reaching the US, will not have satellites, will not have a satellite warning system, and will not be operating in "launch on warning" mode with what few, carefully hidden deterrent weapons it may have?

comenius says (way up above) the US has zero credibility.

This is absolutely true. We have been sailing from Florida to Grenada(!) over the last year, meeting both people from the Caribbean, and Europe and beyond. There is a UNIVERSAL disdain for Bush in particular and the US in general. The Caribbeans are usually very pro-US government, being in our back yard (front yard?) and depending on the US for many things.

We met a professional translator who goes to all the top world leader meetings. Behind the scenes she hears what the world (at the leadership levels) is saying about the US and about Bush and Laura Bush. They hate him. It was a shock to hear the level of this dislike.

She said George and Laura are known for displaying a lack of politeness at the international meetings they attend.

For example in Monterrey Mexico (early 2004), first ladies from attending countries each spoke. Laura Bush choose to read a magazine under the table. Her disinterest and boredom was noted by all the first ladies in attendance. Bush, the translator said, would slouch in his chair in a disrespectful manner showing boredom and contempt for the other attendees.

Compare the Bushes with say, JFK and Jackie - their manners, their graciousness, their interest in other cultures and languages, their respect for lesser dignitaries. We've come a long way, baby.

Sons

Phoenician - it only takes one. Your rhetorical crutch of ignoring the point of my comments and focusing on one item out of context is leading me to believe your defending the indefensible.

Try addressing my whole comment and not one isolated portion.

"Try addressing my whole comment and not one isolated portion."

I have limits on my time, and your posts tend to be long and not structured tightly. The bits I pick out tend to expose flaws in the basic reasoning on which you base the rest of your dialogue (such as the false equating of Iran and Russia above).

If you want fuller replies, feel free to indicate your key points and state them in such a way as to invite actual comment.

You're the best. Okay, the key point

Iran can't be trusted with nuclear weapons because it (ultimately) either can't or won't keep them from the hands of people who will want to use them offensively.

I cite my earlier posts as support for this fact.

p.s. The Iran and Russia comparison was not of two countries, or two armies. Rather it was an illustration of the type of people required in a command and control structure to ensure rational decision making. Sorry if that example went over your head :-)

From Sons 03:26 AM "Her disinterest and boredom was noted by all the first ladies in attendance." I'm not a Bush fan, but I suspect the behavior of Laura Bush might be related to being intimidated and feeling out of her league. Yes, I know she is the wife of the president of the US, but I'd guess that most of the other first ladies she interacts with are better educated, have travelled more, are more familiar with the arts, etc. Rather than show where she is lacking, she probably just shies away. Which, of course, is unfortunate and probably a product of being married to shrub for so long. I suspect if she had a different kind of husband she might take the opportunity to learn more. (This librarian thinks she appears to have the capacity to do so.) But, in Bush world, one is just suppose to wrinkle the nose, roll the eyes, and mumble about elitism and egggheads, to mask one's areas that could use improvement.

Laura suggests this might make a good opera, but I would say only if Charlie Chaplin was playing in a reprise of 'Night at the Opera'. Just as though the past two years had never happened, we are now supposed to become alarmed at Iran's WMD and ride to the rescue of a populace who will dance in the streets at our arrival.

Gee, where have I heard that before?

And, in fact, what we learn from Iraq may not have much to do with the subject matter. We were barely out of Vietnam before we helped overthrow democracy in Chile and fostered the death squads of Argentina and Brazil. To the lay reader, the credentialed 'experts' at the top seem to have about the same reflexes as the 'dumb slob' at the bottom- both classes learned that the peacetime draft was a bad idea, and not much else.

So stay tuned for a 'Laff Riot' as our bellicose liberals rise like a trout to the same lure, and once again end up in the frying pan. Works every time....

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